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The Home Almanac

The winter outlook, December 2026 to February 2027

Every October the Climate Prediction Center of NOAA's National Weather Service issues its outlook for December through February. It is not a forecast of any one storm. It gives the odds that the season as a whole runs warmer or colder, and wetter or drier, than normal. An almanac cannot promise the weather either. What it can do is tell you where this winter's odds tilt, in NOAA's own terms, and which jobs to finish before the first hard cold. The table gives the odds by almanac region; the list under it holds in any winter.

This winter's odds

NOAA's outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 says a very strong El Nino will likely shift the jet stream south and east, which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South. Warmer than average is favored across the northern U.S., with the greatest chances from the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and much of the East; near normal is most likely for parts of the Southeast including Florida, and much of the Southwest has equal chances. Wetter than average is most likely across the southern tier from California to Florida and along the East Coast, drier than average is favored for parts of the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes, and NOAA expects drought to improve or end in the Southwest, the Southern Great Plains, the Southeast and parts of the East Coast. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall.

Issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, 8:30 AM EDT, Thursday, October 15, 2026.

NOAA CPC outlook for December 2026 to February 2027, read for the five almanac regions
Almanac regionTemperature (Dec to Feb)Precipitation (Dec to Feb)What it means for the house
North: Cold and Very ColdAbove normal favored across nearly all of it, most strongly in the northern Plains, the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and New England. Equal chances over the central Rockies, including most of Colorado and Utah. Alaska: above normal favored in the east and south, equal chances in the west.Equal chances over most of it. Below normal favored in the northern Rockies (much of Montana) and in parts of the Great Lakes (Michigan). Above normal favored in much of New England, on the central Plains, and over the Front Range and southern Colorado. Alaska: below normal favored over much of the state.A warm tilt on the season says nothing about any one cold night, so keep the December cold-snap routine ready and the January ice-dam notes on the list.
Mid-country: Mixed-HumidAbove normal favored, most strongly in the Ohio Valley and the mid-Atlantic and more weakly toward the south (Tennessee, the Carolinas, Arkansas). Equal chances toward the western edge in the southern Plains.Equal chances in the Ohio Valley, most of Tennessee and eastern Missouri. Above normal favored toward the Atlantic coast from Maryland through the Carolinas, across Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, and over the northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.Keep the winter thermostat routine in place and the cold-snap routine ready for the first real freeze.
Southeast and Gulf: Hot-HumidNear normal favored from Louisiana east along the Gulf Coast, across southern Georgia and through Florida. Equal chances in eastern Texas and Hawaii.Above normal favored across eastern Texas, the Gulf Coast and Florida, with the strongest tilt in the country over north Florida and southern Georgia. Hawaii: below normal favored.NOAA says this El Nino tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South, so read the winter storm outage rules before the first big storm.
Southwest: Hot-Dry and Mixed-DryEqual chances over most of it, from the Los Angeles basin and San Diego through the desert Southwest to west Texas. Above normal slightly favored over the northern part of California's Central Valley and along the coast northwest of Los Angeles.Above normal favored across nearly all of it, most strongly in Southern California and southwestern Arizona. Equal chances along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend area of west Texas.NOAA warns that too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides; read the winter storm outage rules before the first big storm.
Pacific coast: MarineAbove normal favored across all of it, most strongly in western Washington and least on the central California coast.Equal chances in western Washington. Above normal favored from western Oregon down the California coast.Keep the outdoor water shut down and the cold-snap routine ready for the nights that do freeze.

CPC draws its maps by probability contours, not by our regions, so a region can sit under more than one category. Where it does, the row says so. Probabilities are the chance of the seasonal average landing in the above, near or below normal third; equal chances means no tilt either way.

What to do before a cold winter

November tasksDecember tasks

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References

  1. El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook (news release, October 15, 2026). NOAA. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook
  2. Seasonal Outlook (90-day outlooks). NOAA Climate Prediction Center. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php
  3. Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, Dec-Jan-Feb 2026-27 (issued October 15, 2026). NOAA Climate Prediction Center. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
  4. Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks. NOAA Climate Prediction Center. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html
  5. About the seasonal outlook maps. NOAA Climate Prediction Center. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal_info.php
  6. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
  7. Heating Fire Safety. U.S. Fire Administration (FEMA). https://www.usfa.fema.gov/prevention/home-fires/prevent-fires/heating/
  8. Maintenance Checklist. ENERGY STAR. https://www.energystar.gov/saveathome/heating-cooling/maintenance-checklist
  9. Stay Safe During and After a Winter Storm. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/winter-weather/safety/stay-safe-during-after-a-winter-storm-safety.html
  10. Carbon Monoxide Information Center. U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. https://www.cpsc.gov/Safety-Education/Safety-Education-Centers/Carbon-Monoxide-Information-Center
  11. Keep Warm and Safe This Winter: Tips for Using Generators, Furnaces and Space Heaters (Jan 23, 2026). U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. https://www.cpsc.gov/Newsroom/News-Releases/2026/Keep-Warm-and-Safe-This-Winter-Tips-for-Using-Generators-Furnaces-and-Space-Heaters
  12. Winter Storm Safety. American Red Cross. https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/winter-storm.html
  13. Preventing and Thawing Frozen Pipes. American Red Cross. https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/types-of-emergencies/winter-storm/frozen-pipes.html
  14. Before Winter Storms. NOAA National Weather Service. https://www.weather.gov/safety/winter-before
  15. Attic Air Sealing Project. ENERGY STAR. https://www.energystar.gov/saveathome/seal_insulate/attic-air-sealing-project
  16. About Attic Ventilation. ENERGY STAR. https://www.energystar.gov/saveathome/seal_insulate/do-it-yourself-guide/about-attic-ventilation

Every fact and number on this page comes from one of the sources above, read during the writing of this page. Codes and standards vary by jurisdiction and edition; your local code and your equipment's manual control.